1. 开篇导语 / Editor's Note

【个人观点】地缘政治的“灰天鹅”与机构的“大分流”

本周（1月5日至11日）是2026年开局最为惊心动魄的一周。市场并未如期迎来“一月效应”的普涨，反而被委内瑞拉的地缘政治剧变和美国非农数据的疲软所挟持。比特币在周初试图冲击 $93,000 未果后，受困于 $90,000 关口的拉锯战中。

本周最值得警惕的信号并非价格波动，而是机构资金流向的剧烈分化。比特币现货 ETF 在本周遭遇了罕见的净流出（单周流出超 6.8 亿美元），而与此同时，Solana 和 XRP 等高实用性公链的 ETF 却逆势吸金。这表明机构资金不再盲目买入“大盘”，而是开始进行精细化的“贝塔轮动”，押注于具体的支付和效用叙事。

宏观层面，美国“解放日”（针对委内瑞拉的行动）虽然短期内推高了避险情绪，但随之而来的资产扣押担忧引发了加密市场的“抗审查”焦虑。叠加周五发布的疲软非农数据（新增仅5万人），市场正在从“通胀交易”迅速切换至“衰退防御”模式。在 CPI 数据发布前夕，保持流动性充裕是明智之举。

2. 市场总览 / Market Overview

截至时间：2026年1月11日 23:59 UTC+8

• 
  市场情绪： 恐惧与贪婪指数跌至 27 (恐惧)，较上周显著回落，表明市场处于防御状态。
• 比特币主导率： 58.5%，山寨币在缺乏流动性的情况下表现分化。
• 爆仓数据： 全网24小时爆仓量一度突破 2.6 亿美元，主要为空头爆仓，显示市场在 $90k 下方存在强劲的被动买盘支撑。

3. 本周头条 / Top Stories

1. 美国突袭委内瑞拉，引发资产扣押恐慌
   美军在委内瑞拉的军事行动及马杜罗的被捕（被称为“解放日”）震动全球市场。虽然石油市场反应平淡，但有关美国可能扣押委内瑞拉国家加密储备的传言，引发了市场对“主权级抗审查性”的深度担忧，导致 BTC 周中回调4。
2. 特朗普媒体提交“加密蓝筹 ETF”申请，Cronos 意外入选
   Trump Media & Technology Group 提交了 S-1 申请，计划推出包含 BTC (70%)、ETH (15%)、SOL (8%)、XRP (2%) 和 Cronos (CRO, 5%) 的 ETF。CRO 的入选被视为巨大的政治背书，推动该代币逆势走强[26]。
3. 比特币 ETF 单周流出 6.8 亿美元，资金转向山寨 ETF
   本周比特币 ETF 结束了连续流入态势，贝莱德 IBIT 领跌。然而，XRP 和 Solana ETF 录得净流入，显示机构资金正在从“纯价值存储”向“高贝塔效用”资产轮动2。
4. 摩根大通 JPM Coin 接入 Canton 网络
   摩根大通宣布将其存款代币 JPM Coin 整合至 Canton Network 公链，标志着银行系代币正式进入公有链生态，直接挑战 USDT 在机构结算中的地位11。
5. 美国 12 月非农仅增 5 万人，远逊预期
   周五发布的就业数据显示，美国 12 月非农就业人口仅增加 5 万人（预期 7.3 万），失业率降至 4.4%。疲软的就业增长加剧了对经济放缓的担忧，市场开始重新定价美联储的降息路径。
6. Rain 完成 2.5 亿美元巨额融资，估值近 20 亿
   企业级稳定币卡发行商 Rain 完成 2.5 亿美元融资，ICONIQ 领投。这是 2026 年迄今最大的一笔融资，验证了“支付与稳定币”是当前一级市场最确定的赛道13。
7. 矿工向 AI 算力转型加速，收入结构巨变
   CoinShares 报告显示，大型矿企正激进地将电力基础设施转向 AI/HPC。预计到 2026 年底，头部矿企的比特币挖矿收入占比将降至 20% 以下，转型为“能源数据中心 REITs”14。
8. 最高法院推迟关税裁决，市场悬而未决
   美国最高法院本周五未就特朗普的全球关税合法性作出裁决。这一法律真空导致市场缺乏明确的方向，隐含波动率（IV）在下周前仍将维持高位16。
9. Hyperliquid (HYPE) 解锁 3 亿美元，市场承压
   本周 Hyperliquid 经历了约 3.2 亿美元的大额解锁（占流通量 5.23%）。尽管 HYPE 价格基本稳住，但巨大的供应冲击吸走了 DEX 板块的大量流动性18。
10. Ripple 解锁 10 亿 XRP，部分重新锁定
    Ripple 按照惯例在月初解锁了 10 亿枚 XRP。虽然大部分被重新锁定，但在 ETF 预期的推动下，XRP 本周表现优于大盘，显示出极强的韧性。

4. 热点板块深度 / Sector Deep Dive

数据来源：DefiLlama (本周变化)

1. 现实世界资产 (RWA)

• 核心动态： 受贝莱德和摩根大通（Canton Network）新动作驱动，Ondo 和 Chainlink 表现活跃。
• 资金流向： 机构资金正从纯链上 DeFi 转向合规 RWA 协议，以寻求美债收益率与链上流动性的结合。
• 风险点： 监管合规成本激增，小型协议面临被“招安”或淘汰的风险。

2. Solana 生态 (DeFi & Memes)

• 核心动态： 尽管大盘回调，Solana TVL 仍保持增长，且 ETF 持续流入。
• 资金流向： 散户资金继续在 Solana 上寻找高波动性机会（Memecoins），而机构则通过 ETF 布局 SOL 本位。
• 风险点： 杠杆率过高，链上清算风险集中在 $128 附近。

3. 支付与稳定币 (Payments)

• 核心动态： Rain 的巨额融资和 JPM Coin 的公链化是两大催化剂。
• 资金流向： 风险投资（VC）正疯狂涌入支付基础设施层，押注稳定币将吞噬传统跨境支付市场。
• 风险点： 银行系代币（Deposit Tokens）对 USDT/USDC 的长期市场份额构成挤压。

5. 链上数据亮点 / On-Chain Highlights

• 巨鲸持仓： 持有 >1000 BTC 的地址在 $90,000 附近并未出现大规模抛售，显示长期持有者（LTH）依然淡定，视当前波动为噪音。
• 稳定币供应： 本周稳定币总供应量减少约 8 亿美元，资金流入停滞。这是市场缺乏上涨动能的核心原因。
• 活跃地址： 比特币网络活跃地址数降至 2024 年 12 月以来新低，链上交易需求疲软，更多交易发生在 ETF 和期货等“纸比特币”层面。
• 期货持仓： CME 持仓量（Open Interest）在高位横盘，表明机构并未离场，而是在通过期权进行对冲。

6. 融资与项目动态 / Funding & Project Updates

下周重要解锁/事件：

• Arbitrum (ARB): 1月16日，解锁约 9265 万枚（1.86%），恐对 L2 板块造成抛压。
• Ondo (ONDO): 1月18日，巨额解锁，需高度警惕 RWA 板块波动。
• TRUMP: 1月18日，解锁 11.95% 流通量，PolitiFi 板块或剧烈震荡。

7. 监管与宏观 / Regulation & Macro

• 美国： 最高法院推迟了关于特朗普关税的裁决，市场不确定性延续至下周。FDIC 提出了针对银行发行稳定币的新规，旨在落实“GENIUS 法案”，利好合规银行系代币。
• 全球税务： 英国 CARF 和欧盟 DAC8 框架于 1月1日 正式生效，本周效应开始显现，部分隐私敏感资金正在撤离合规交易所，转向链上或离岸平台。
• ETF 动态： 摩根士丹利提交了比特币和 Solana ETF 的申请，成为首家推动山寨币 ETF 的华尔街大行。

8. 一图胜千言 / Chart of the Week

1. 比特币清算热力图：$95,000 的空头长城
   热力图显示在 $95,000 - $95,500 区域堆积了巨额的空头清算流动性。做市商有极强动力在回调结束后去“猎杀”这部分流动性。
   
2. ETF 资金流向：BTC vs 山寨币的分叉
   本周 BTC ETF 净流出，而 XRP/SOL ETF 净流入。这是自 ETF 上线以来的首次显著背离，标志着资金逻辑的结构性转变。
   
3. 恐慌与贪婪指数：情绪重置
   指数从上个月的“贪婪”快速回落至 27（恐惧）。历史上，这种快速的情绪重置通常是建立中期底部的信号。
   

9. 下周展望 / What to Watch Next Week

1. 1月13日 (周二)：美国 12 月 CPI 数据发布
   • 预判： 核心通胀数据将决定美联储 1 月底的利率决议。若通胀反弹，BTC 可能下探 $85k；若温和，则有望重返 $95k。
2. 1月18日 (周日)：TRUMP 代币巨额解锁
   • 预判： 接近 12% 的流通量解锁将对 PolitiFi 板块造成巨大冲击，建议持有者提前对冲风险。
3. 贝莱德与摩根大通的后续动作
   • 预判： 关注 Canton Network 是否会有更多银行加入，以及贝莱德是否会针对 ETH/SOL ETF 发布新的营销攻势。

10. 结语与呼吁 / Closing & CTA

本周市场在地缘政治的惊雷中展示了韧性，但也暴露了流动性的匮乏。我们正处于“主权抗审查”叙事与“机构合规化”叙事碰撞的十字路口。对于投资者而言，现在的关键不是盲目做多，而是识别出那些能从“机构大轮动”中受益的标的。

感谢阅读本期 AscendEX Web3 周报

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本文仅供信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。加密资产价格波动极大，投资需谨慎。AscendEX 对本文内容不承担任何法律责任。

===

AscendEX Web3 Weekly | January 5–11, 2026

Author: Bin Huang, Head of AscendEX Research

1. Editor's Note

[Personal View] The Geopolitical "Gray Swan" and the Institutional Great Rotation

The week of January 5th to 11th has been the most dramatic start to 2026 imaginable. Instead of the anticipated "January Effect" rally, the market has been held hostage by geopolitical upheaval in Venezuela and weak US payroll data. Bitcoin, after failing to breach $93,000 early in the week, is now entrenched in a war of attrition around the $90,000 level.The most critical signal this week is not price volatility, but the violent divergence in institutional flows. Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw rare net outflows this week (over -$681M), while simultaneously, ETFs for high-utility chains like Solana and XRP attracted inflows. This suggests institutions are no longer blindly buying "the market" (Beta) but are engaging in a sophisticated rotation, betting on specific payment and utility narratives.

Macro-wise, the US "Liberation Day" operation in Venezuela initially spiked risk-off sentiment, but subsequent fears over asset seizures have triggered deep "censorship resistance" anxiety within crypto. Compounded by Friday's weak NFP data (only +50k jobs), the market is rapidly switching from "Reflation Trade" to "Recession Defense". With CPI data looming next week, maintaining liquidity is the prudent play.

2. Market Overview

Cut-off Time: January 11, 2026, 23:59 UTC+8

• 
  Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 27 (Fear), a significant retreat from last week, indicating a defensive market posture.Dominance: Bitcoin dominance stands at 58.5%. Altcoins are performing unevenly amidst the liquidity crunch.Liquidations: 24-hour total liquidations briefly topped $260M, mostly longs, highlighting strong passive buying support below $90k.

  ---

   

3. Top Stories

1. US Strikes Venezuela, Sparking Asset Seizure Fears
   The US military operation in Venezuela and the capture of Maduro ("Liberation Day") shook global markets. While oil reacted mutedly, rumors that the US might seize Venezuela's state crypto reserves triggered deep anxiety regarding "sovereign-grade censorship resistance," causing BTC to retrace mid-week.4
2. Trump Media Files for "Crypto Blue Chip ETF" with Surprise Cronos Inclusion
   Trump Media & Technology Group filed an S-1 for an ETF comprising BTC (70%), ETH (15%), SOL (8%), XRP (2%), and Cronos (CRO, 5%). CRO's inclusion is seen as a massive political endorsement, driving the token's relative strength [26].
3. Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $680M as Capital Rotates to Altcoin ETFs
   Bitcoin ETFs ended their streak of inflows, led by outflows from BlackRock's IBIT. However, XRP and Solana ETFs recorded net inflows, signaling a structural rotation from "Pure Store of Value" to "High-Beta Utility" assets.2
4. JPMorgan Migrates JPM Coin to Canton Network
   JPMorgan announced the integration of its deposit token, JPM Coin, onto the Canton Network public chain. This marks the official entry of bank-backed tokens into the public chain ecosystem, directly challenging USDT's dominance in institutional settlement.11
5. US NFP Adds Only 50k Jobs, Missing Expectations
   Friday's data showed the US added only 50,000 jobs in December (vs. 73k expected), with unemployment dipping to 4.4%. Weak job growth has exacerbated recession fears, causing the market to re-price the Fed's rate cut path.
6. Rain Raises Massive $250M Series C at $1.95B Valuation
   Corporate stablecoin card issuer Rain secured $250M led by ICONIQ. This is the largest raise of 2026 so far, validating "Payments & Stablecoins" as the highest-conviction sector in the primary market.13
7. Miners Accelerate Pivot to AI Compute
   A CoinShares report reveals large miners are aggressively repurposing power infrastructure for AI/HPC. By late 2026, top miners' revenue share from Bitcoin mining is projected to drop below 20%, transforming them into "Energy Data Center REITs".14
8. Supreme Court Delays Tariff Ruling
   The US Supreme Court failed to issue a ruling on Trump's global tariffs this Friday. This legal vacuum leaves the market without clear direction, keeping Implied Volatility (IV) structurally high heading into next week.16
9. Hyperliquid (HYPE) Absorbs $300M Unlock
   Hyperliquid faced a massive ~$320M unlock this week (5.23% of circ. supply). While price stabilized, the massive supply shock drained significant liquidity from the DEX sector.18
10. Ripple Unlocks 1 Billion XRP
    Ripple executed its scheduled monthly unlock of 1 billion XRP. Despite the supply hit, XRP outperformed the broader market this week, driven by continued ETF speculation.

4. Sector Deep Dive

Data Source: DefiLlama (Weekly Change)

1. Real World Assets (RWA)

• Key Dynamics: Driven by moves from BlackRock and JPMorgan (Canton Network), tokens like Ondo and Chainlink remained active.
• Flows: Institutional capital is rotating from pure on-chain DeFi to compliant RWA protocols, seeking US Treasury yields combined with on-chain liquidity.
• Risk: Compliance costs are skyrocketing; smaller protocols face risks of being regulated out of existence or acquired.

2. Solana Ecosystem (DeFi & Memes)

• Key Dynamics: Despite the market correction, Solana TVL continued to grow, supported by steady ETF inflows.
• Flows: Retail capital continues to hunt for high volatility (Memecoins) on Solana, while institutions position via ETFs.
• Risk: Leverage remains high, with liquidation risks concentrated around the $128 level.3. Payments & Stablecoins
• Key Dynamics: Rain's massive funding and JPM Coin's public chain move are major catalysts.
• Flows: VCs are pouring into the payment infrastructure layer, betting on stablecoins eating into traditional cross-border payment markets.
• Risk: Bank-issued "Deposit Tokens" pose a long-term market share threat to USDT/USDC.

5. On-Chain Highlights

• Whale Activity: Addresses holding >1000 BTC showed no significant selling around $90,000, indicating Long-Term Holders (LTH) remain calm and view current volatility as noise.Stablecoin Supply: Total stablecoin supply contracted by ~$800M this week. The stagnation of inflows is the core reason for the market's lack of upward momentum.
• Active Addresses: Bitcoin network active addresses dropped to new lows since Dec 2024. On-chain transactional demand is weak; more volume is occurring in "Paper Bitcoin" layers like ETFs and futures.

• Futures OI: CME Open Interest remains flat at high levels, suggesting institutions haven't left but are hedging via options strategies.

  ---

   

6. Funding & Project Updates

Key Unlocks/Events Next Week:

• Arbitrum (ARB): Jan 16, unlocking ~92.65M tokens (1.86%). Watch for sell pressure on L2s.
• Ondo (ONDO): Jan 18, massive unlock event. High volatility expected in RWA sector.
• TRUMP: Jan 18, unlocking 11.95% of circulating supply. PolitiFi sector likely to see extreme turbulence.

7. Regulation & Macro

• USA: The Supreme Court delayed its ruling on Trump's tariffs, extending uncertainty. The FDIC proposed new rules for bank-issued stablecoins under the "GENIUS Act," favoring compliant bank tokens.Global Tax: The UK's CARF and EU's DAC8 frameworks (effective Jan 1) are biting. Privacy-sensitive capital is actively migrating away from compliant exchanges to on-chain or offshore venues.ETFs: Morgan Stanley filed for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, becoming the first major Wall Street bank to push for altcoin ETFs.

  ---

   

8. Chart of the Week

1. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap: The $95,000 Short Wall
   The heatmap shows massive short liquidation liquidity piled up in the $95,000 - $95,500 zone. Market makers have a strong incentive to "hunt" this liquidity once consolidation ends.

   

2. ETF Flows: The Great Divergence
   BTC ETFs saw net outflows while XRP/SOL ETFs saw net inflows. This is the first significant divergence since launch, marking a structural shift in capital logic.

   

3. Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment Reset
   The index rapidly retreated from "Greed" last month to 27 (Fear). Historically, such rapid sentiment resets are often signals for establishing a mid-term bottom.

   

9. What to Watch Next Week

1. Jan 13 (Tue): US December CPI Data
   • Impact: Core inflation will dictate the Fed's late-January rate decision. If inflation rebounds, BTC could test $85k; if mild, a reclaim of $95k is in play.
2. Jan 18 (Sun): TRUMP Token Massive Unlock
   • Impact: An unlock of nearly 12% of circulating supply will shock the PolitiFi sector. Holders should hedge risk.
3. BlackRock & JPMorgan Moves
   • Impact: Watch for more banks joining the Canton Network and whether BlackRock launches a new marketing offensive for ETH/SOL ETFs.

10. Closing & CTA

This week, the market demonstrated resilience amidst geopolitical thunder but also revealed a scarcity of liquidity. We stand at the crossroads of the "Sovereign Censorship Resistance" narrative and the "Institutional Compliance" narrative. For investors, the key now is not blind longing, but identifying assets that stand to benefit from the "Institutional Great Rotation."

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Disclaimer:

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Invest responsibly. AscendEX assumes no liability for the content of this report.