1. Editor's Note

【Personal View: Institutions Are Here, The Storm Is Coming】

This week (Jan 12–18), the crypto market demonstrated remarkable resilience and maturity. Driven by the macroeconomic tailwind of US CPI cooling to 2.6%, Bitcoin (BTC) successfully reclaimed the $95,000 mark, while Ethereum (ETH) staged a strong catch-up rally fueled by an explosion in on-chain activity. This is not a retail frenzy, but a precise sniper operation by institutional capital buying the dip—evidenced by the massive return of net inflows into ETFs this week.

Although geopolitical aftershocks remain and high leverage in the derivatives market (Long/Short ratio spiking to 2.86) suggests short-term volatility risks, my core thesis remains unchanged: The market is in a critical transition window from an "emotional bull" to a "fundamental structural bull." The SEC's new "Project Crypto" sets the tone for a regulated era. For investors, this is not the time to exit, but the best time to buckle up and focus on Alpha opportunities in top-tier DeFi and RWA assets.

2. Market Overview

Cut-off Time: January 18, 2026, 23:59 UTC+8

• 
  Total Market Cap: $3.23 Trillion
• BTC Dominance: 59.0%
• ETH Dominance: 12.4%
• Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral - Accumulating Momentum)
• Liquidations: ~$120M in past 24H (Longs & Shorts)

3. Top Stories

1. SEC Launches "Project Crypto": SEC Chairman Paul Atkins officially unveiled "Project Crypto" this week, featuring an "innovation exemption" that allows projects a 3-year decentralization window exempt from certain securities laws. A historic regulatory pivot.US CPI Cools to 2.6%: December Core CPI released Tuesday hit 2.6%, the lowest since 2021. The "soft landing" narrative is solidified, clearing the path for Federal Reserve rate cuts and igniting mid-week price action.

2. ETF Weekly Inflows Top $1.6B: After consecutive outflows, Spot Bitcoin ETFs roared back this week. Led by BlackRock and Fidelity, estimated weekly net inflows exceeded $1.68 billion, showing strong institutional dip-buying.Ethereum Active Addresses Double: Glassnode data shows ETH monthly active addresses surged 53% to break 1 million, with daily transactions hitting a record 2.8 million. Fundamental recovery is the core driver of ETH's strength.Circle IPO Preshow: Stablecoin giant Circle is advancing its IPO, with data revealing 2025 stablecoin on-chain payment volume hit $15.6 trillion, surpassing Visa/Mastercard combined. A massive valuation reset for the sector.Trump Media Token Plans: Trump Media (DJT) announced plans to airdrop a new crypto token to shareholders. While details are scarce, the news triggered volatility in political concept tokens (TRUMP, MAGA).XRP Derivatives 1122% Imbalance: Following Coinbase's opposition to a specific bill and profit-taking, XRP retraced. CoinGlass detected an extreme long liquidation imbalance, signaling short-term leverage risk.EU DAC8 Tax Rules Live: New EU rules mandating crypto service providers to collect user data for 2027 tax audits are in effect. Compliance costs are pushing some capital toward Asia or the Middle East.Hyperliquid Donation & Unlock: DEX leader Hyperliquid donated $250k in HYPE tokens to ZachXBT. The market is closely watching its massive token unlock coming on Jan 28.Solana Mobile Token Rumors: A new token (SKR) linked to Solana Mobile is expected to launch on Jan 20, sparking a mini-hype cycle within the Solana Meme and DePIN ecosystem.

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4. Sector Deep Dive

Top 3 Sectors by Fund Flow/TVL Change (Based on DefiLlama):

• 
  Deep Analysis:
  • RWA: With SEC policy softening, tokenized treasuries and credit are becoming the primary gateway for compliant institutional capital. Ondo Finance stood out this week with sustained net inflows.
  • Risk Note: The Meme sector is fracturing. Capital is rotating from Solana Memes back into ETH Beta assets. Beware of liquidity dry-ups in lower-cap coins.

5. On-Chain Highlights

1. BTC Long/Short Ratio: The ratio on Binance spiked to 2.86, indicating extremely crowded retail long positioning. Major players often hunt liquidity downside before moving up.LTH Behavior: Realized Profit by Long-Term Holders has dropped significantly to ~$180M/day, signaling that selling pressure is exhausted and the distribution phase is pausing.ETH User Retention: Retention of new active ETH addresses doubled from 4M to 8M, marking the healthiest organic growth curve since 2023.Exchange Balances: BTC continues to drain from CEXs into cold storage and ETF custody addresses, setting the stage for a supply shock.
2. Stablecoin Flows: Total stablecoin market cap ticked up, with high USDT "Buying Power" sitting on exchanges, ready to deploy.

6. Funding & Project Updates

Primary Market Raises exceeded $430M this week, focused on Infra & Payments:

Key Unlocks & Launches Next Week:

• Aptos (APT): Ongoing linear unlocks creating sell pressure.

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): ~10M tokens (~$260M) unlocking on Jan 28. Expect pre-unlock hedging volatility next week.Solana Mobile (SKR): TGE on Jan 20. Monitor for ecosystem ripple effects.

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7. Regulation & Macro

• USA: SEC "Project Crypto" provides a massive tailwind. While the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" faced delays due to Coinbase's stablecoin concerns, the trajectory is positive.EU: MiCA effects are deepening. ~1/3 of non-compliant firms face exit risks, consolidating market share toward compliant giants.Asia: Singapore MAS delayed crypto capital rules for banks to 2027; Hong Kong pushes ahead with its stablecoin sandbox.ETF Flows: BTC ETF net inflows >$1.6B this week. BlackRock's IBIT remains the dominant market force.

8. Chart of the Week

Chart 1: Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

Insight: High-density long liquidation clusters exist at $92,000 - $93,500. Smart money may push price here to fill bags. Above, $98,000 is the fuel tank for short squeezes.

Chart 2: Ethereum Active Addresses

Insight: Parabolic! ETH active addresses hit multi-year highs. The divergence between price and fundamentals is closing—a solid foundation for a rally.

9. What to Watch Next Week

1. Jan 19 (Mon) - US Market Closed: MLK Day. US Stocks & CME closed. Low liquidity often leads to manipulation during Asian hours.
2. Jan 20 (Tue) - China LPR Decision: Watch for easing signals from PBoC to boost Asian liquidity.
3. Jan 22 (Thu) - US PCE Data: The Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Lower data = cemented rate cut bets = BTC to $100k.
4. Jan 23 (Fri) - BoJ Interest Rate Decision: High Risk. A surprise rate hike could trigger a Yen carry trade unwind and a flash crash in risk assets.
5. Jan 20 - Solana Mobile Token: Watch SKR launch for sentiment spillover to SOL/DePIN.
6. Q4 Earnings Kickoff: Tech earnings guidance on AI/Metaverse spend will correlate with Crypto AI tokens.

10. Closing & CTA

The darkness before dawn tests human nature the most. This week's data tells us institutions are greedily accumulating while retail hesitates. AscendEX Research advises: Stay patient, avoid high leverage, and embrace compliance and real yield.

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Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Invest responsibly. AscendEX assumes no liability for the content of this report.