Editor's Note

This week, the total crypto market cap declined approximately 10.14% to $2.85 trillion, with Bitcoin falling from around $95,500 to near $86,000, down over 9%. This pullback reflects heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, including Fed minutes signaling reduced rate cut expectations and signs of global liquidity tightening. Fund flows turned cautious, with institutions showing net outflows via ETFs totaling $379 million, highlighting a drop in short-term risk appetite. Despite this, on-chain data indicates mid-tier holders continue accumulating, suggesting structural support.

Amid this environment, market sentiment shifted to extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 11, in the historical low percentile. This underscores crypto's linkage to macroeconomics, where sustained high rates suppress risk assets. 【Personal View】The current correction is not a cycle reversal but a healthy adjustment; long-term, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity will drive recovery, but short-term, watch for further outflow risks and recommend monitoring support levels with diversified allocation.

Fund flows showed stablecoin transaction volumes holding at $19.4B annualized, but ETF outflows dominated the narrative. Overall, this week's events tested crypto's resilience but offered value entry points for investors.

Market Overview

The crypto market underwent significant adjustment this week, with total market cap down 10.14% from November 17. Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.8%, Ethereum dominance fell to about 13.5%. Fear & Greed Index at 11, in extreme low historical percentile, reflecting fear. Funding rates neutral to negative, averaging 0.01%; liquidation distribution showed longs dominant in losses, total ~$2B with longs ~65%.

(Data source: CoinMarketCap, as of November 23, 2025, 23:59 UTC+8)

Top Stories

1. Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000, Erasing 2025 Gains: Hawkish Fed minutes pressure; tests $81,000 support. Impact: Amplifies liquidations, fear index spikes, but mid-tier accumulation offers rebound base.
2. US Bitcoin ETFs See $379M Weekly Net Outflow: BlackRock IBIT outflows $2.47B, monthly record. Impact: Institutional selling magnifies downside, but history shows outflows precede bottoms.
3. Kraken Secures $200M Funding at $20B Valuation: Led by Paradigm. Impact: Boosts liquidity for global expansion, but high valuation risks volatility.
4. Kalshi Raises $1B, Largest VC Round of Week: Prediction markets focus. Impact: Highlights DeFi-traditional finance fusion potential, driving institutional adoption.
5. Doppel Completes $70M Series C: AI-driven crypto tools. Impact: Accelerates AI-crypto integration, but regulatory scrutiny looms.
6. X Buzz: Trump Crypto Corruption Allegations: Claims $5B from schemes. Impact: Political uncertainty heightens volatility, short-term bearish.
7. Monad Mainnet and MON Airdrop Set for Nov 24: Layer-1 blockchain. Impact: Potential catalyst for inflows, but unlock sell pressure risk.
8. Japan Proposes New Crypto Rules per Asahi: Stablecoin issuance limits to banks. Impact: Asia tightening may affect global liquidity.
9. X Hot: Andrew Tate Liquidated 84 Times on Hyperliquid: Whale behavior sparks discussion. Impact: Underscores leverage risks, cautions retail.
10. Singapore Exchange Launches BTC/ETH Perpetual Futures: SGX derivatives arm. Impact: Enhances institutional access, matures Asia market.

Sector Deep Dive

Per DefiLlama, DeFi TVL down 8% to $1.433T this week. Top three volume sectors: DEX (-12%), Lending (-7%), RWA (+2%). Flows show stablecoin inflows supporting RWA, but leverage liquidations hit DEX.

DEX Sector: TVL $450B, weekly -12%. Uniswap leads, volume down on liquidity exodus. Risk: High slippage and MEV attacks.

Flows: Net $500M outflow. Risk Analysis: Macro tightening reduces retail trading.

Lending Sector: TVL $320B, weekly -7%. Aave tops, borrowing demand falls. Risk: Collateral volatility amplifies defaults.

Flows: Stable. Risk: Rising rates squeeze leverage.

RWA Sector: TVL $180B, weekly +2%. Ondo grows strong on institutional inflows. Risk: Regulatory uncertainty.

Flows: Net $300M inflow. Risk: Traditional asset volatility spillover.

On-Chain Highlights

1. Active Addresses Down 15%: Bitcoin daily actives to 850K, per Glassnode, signaling caution (Source: Glassnode).
2. Stablecoin Inflows Slow: Weekly $19.4B annualized, below peaks, CryptoQuant reports institutional shift to cash.
3. Realized P/L Turns Negative: Network-wide $30-100B losses realized, long-term holder rotation offset by mid-tier accumulation.
4. Whale Movements Active: 100+ BTC addresses transfer 10K coins, CryptoQuant tracks shift to stablecoins.
5. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Decline: To 2.2M BTC, indicating accumulation.
6. Ethereum Gas Neutral: Avg 5 Gwei, on-chain activity stable.
7. Solana TPS Pullback: Down 20% from peak, still above Ethereum.
8. NFT Volume Down 18%: OpenSea leads, macro risks suppress.
9. DeFi TVL Weekly -8%: DefiLlama confirms liquidity exodus.
10. Stablecoin Circulation at Peak: Annualized $1.94T, supports payments but not price drive.

Funding & Project Updates

Weekly funding totaled $1.42B across 16 deals. High-valuation rounds dominate, focus on infrastructure.

Lead Background: Paradigm focuses on L1s, a16z pushes AI-crypto.

Project Updates:

1. Monad Mainnet: Nov 24 launch, MON airdrop to 225K users. Potential Impact: Boosts L1 competition.
2. Aerodrome V2: Slipstream upgrade, no-fee ALM. Potential Impact: Optimizes Base liquidity.
3. Lighter FX Trading: Late Nov GBP/USD perps launch. Potential Impact: Bridges traditional forex.
4. ONFA Upgrade: Payment system optimization. Potential Impact: Enhances DeFi efficiency.
5. Undeads Games Unlock: 2.15MM tokens. Potential Impact: GameFi sell pressure risk.

Regulation & Macro

US: SEC Chair Atkins advances "Project Crypto," approves ETP generic standards. ETFs weekly outflow $379M, BlackRock leads. Macro: Fed minutes hawkish, Dec cut odds to 40%.

EU: MiCA fully effective, stablecoin issuance requires bank licenses. DORA bolsters ICT risk management.

Asia: Japan proposes new rules, stablecoin limits to banks. Singapore SGX launches BTC/ETH futures. Hong Kong's A-S-P-I-Re framework attracts funds.

ETF Inflows: Weekly net outflow $379M, monthly over $3.5B. Macro Events: US yields rise, liquidity squeeze hits risk assets.

Chart of the Week

Chart 1: Bitcoin/Overall Market Liquidation Heatmap

Weekly heatmap shows high-density long liquidations in $81K-$86K zone, totaling ~$2B. Interpretation: Leverage flush complete, potential support forms, but watch for deeper probe.

Chart 2: Long/Short Ratio & Funding Rate History

Long/short 1.2:1, longs dominate losses. Funding 0.01%, neutral. Interpretation: Leverage balanced, no extreme bias short-term, but low rates signal volatility.

Chart 3: Large Holder Position Changes

Large holders at 61%, whale accumulation in mid-tier addresses. Interpretation: Distribution slows, price support, monitor exchange inflows.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Monad Mainnet Launch (11/24): L1 goes live, potential TVL surge; Impact: Ecosystem inflows, but sell pressure risk.
2. SOON Token Unlock (11/24): 4.33% supply unlock; Impact: Short-term price pressure, watch demand.
3. Undeads Games Unlock (11/25): 1.49% supply; Impact: Heightens GameFi volatility.
4. Fed Speeches (11/25-26): Goolsbee/Harker comments; Impact: Rate cut expectations fluctuate, risk-off potential.
5. ONFA Payment Upgrade (11/26): DeFi efficiency boost; Impact: Volume rebound.
6. US Unemployment Data (11/27): Economic health gauge; Impact: Higher-than-expected could test BTC $80K.
7. Bitcoin Amsterdam (11/28): Europe focus conference; Impact: Policy talks drive sentiment.
8. LayerZero Cross-Chain Update (11/29): Bridge optimization; Impact: Liquidity improvement.
9. Global Stablecoin Report (11/30): FATF update; Impact: Regulatory clarity bullish.
10. Potential ETF Decision (11/30): Solana ETF approval; Impact: If passed, altcoin rally.

Closing & CTA

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This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Invest responsibly. AscendEX assumes no liability for the content of this report.